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July 2025 NICS Numbers | OHUB News
It’s already August. While the last month of summer vacation means back-to-school shopping and two-a-day practices, it also signifies that another month of NICS numbers has passed. And July, like the months before it, continues a steady decline in sales. This has been an ongoing news series examining the monthly NICS numbers to gauge the industry’s temperature. So far, I’ve discussed every month since April, with each edition showing a steady decline compared to the same month in the previous year. All of which comes to a head in July.
Reminders
First, the NICS check only confirms that a background check is taking place, not the number of guns listed on a 4473. It does not reflect a 1:1 ratio of firearms purchased to background checks completed.
Moreover, this figure does not include private party transfers, which are legal in many states. Additionally, twenty-four states have alternative permits that allow firearm purchases without requiring additional background checks. For instance, an updated CCW license is accepted as a replacement for a NICS check in Ohio. Keep these points in mind when examining the numbers.
Depressing Numbers
For nearly six years, the firearm industry has been on a torrent, with each month surpassing 1,000,000 NSSF-adjusted checks. Well, that record has come to an abrupt—but not surprising—end. More from NSSF’s Mark Olivia:
July’s figures of 978,731 background checks for the sale of a firearm at retail beings an end to the streak of over 1 million background checks each month that ran for nearly six years. Summer months routinely show lower background check figures than other times of the year and we’ve watched as the background check figures came down from astronomical highs several years ago. There are factors that contribute to this, including relief of concern that politics would deny some from being able to exercise Second Amendment rights to purchase a firearm of one’s choice and economic uncertainty. Firearm manufacturers continue to work to produce high-quality, safe, and reliable firearms to meet the demand of discerning customers across the nation.
Zooming Out
As sales flatline, manufacturers and retailers will look to aggressive sales and marketing tactics to lure customers. For consumers, this means it’s a buyer’s market. However, as sales decline, this will hopefully also encourage innovation —a quality that was lacking during the peak of the COVID-19 boom. Just look at Anderson and Del-Ton.
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Sources:
- https://www.shootingnewsweekly.com/business/july-gun-sales-dip-below-1-million-for-the-first-time-in-over-five-years/
- https://www.outdoorhub.com/news/2025/07/24/june-2025-nics-numbers-ohub-news/
- https://www.nssf.org/articles/nssf-adjusted-background-checks-top-15-2-million-in-2024/
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